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The diner. The onion rings. The guy with the Members Only jacket. Meadow parking the car. Journey’s “Don’t Stop Believin’.” The sudden cut to black. When it comes to The Sopranos‘ ending, two things are certain: 1. People will not stop talking about it, and 2. We will never get a clear answer from David Chase.

The final scene of The Sopranos remains the most debated scene in television history. The show’s creator, David Chase, has repeatedly refused to give a definitive answer on the meaning of the ambiguous ending. This has led many fans to form their own conclusions and develop their own theories about what happened.

But, if you want a clear answer, you’ve come to the right place! Did Tony die at the end? If he did, who killed him? What was David Chase trying to accomplish with the final scene? Keep reading and all these questions will be answered. Also, we will take a look at some of the most popular theories that fans have come up with over the years and see if any of them holds up to scrutiny.

1. The Most Popular Theory: Tony is Dead (The Five Clues)

Most people agree that Tony is killed by the guy wearing the Members Only jacket. Proponents of this theory are pointing to several events in the series, especially in the final season, that, according to them, are clues that Tony has certainly died. So, let’s take a look at the five “clues” that prove that Tony dies in the end:

Clue No.1: In the episode “Soprano Home Movies” (episode 13 of the final season) Bobby and Tony are having a conversation about the fate of mafia bosses. Bobby remarks: “You probably don’t even hear it when it happens, right?” referring to the gunshot.

This sentence is also heard in a flashback at the ending of the penultimate episode “The Blue Comet.” For the “Tony is dead” team this is the biggest hint that Tony is killed by the Members Only guy; the reason we don’t hear or see anything is that Tony doesn’t hear or see anything either. He’s dead.

By the way, Bobby definitely heard it when it happened to him.

Clue No.2: In the first episode of the sixth season, “Members Only,” Eugene Pontecorvo goes into a restaurant and kills a guy while also wearing a Members Only jacket—identical to the one worn by the guy in the final scene. Many fans think that this is an obvious clue that a murder is about to take place in the restaurant, right after the screen turns black.

Clue No.3: After being shot by his associates (season two) Christopher wakes up from a coma, and tells Tony that he visited hell (or purgatory) and that he met Mikey Palmice there. Chris tells Tony that Mikey had a message for him: “three o’clock,”—implying that something important is about to happen at that particular time.

This “three o’clock” message is forgotten for the rest of the series, but many consider this to be a major clue that Tony dies in the end. According to this theory, it is revealed that Mikey’s message didn’t mean a particular time, but the three o’clock angle: when the Members Only guy exits the bathroom, he would have approached Tony from his right (his three o’clock).

Clue No.4: In episode 14 of season 6, “Stage 5,” Silvio is having dinner at a restaurant with Gerry Torciano and two ladies. Before they order some wine, the sound mutes, and Silvio is sprayed with blood. It takes two to three seconds for Silvio (and us) to figure out what’s going on, and then it becomes clear that Gerry is “getting whacked.”

Because we don’t hear the first gunshot, many fans have concluded that this is a clue that Tony gets killed in the end. But, unlike Gerry, Tony doesn’t get to hear anything, because in his case, the first bullet is the fatal one.

Finally, Clue No.5 comes from the similarity between the Sopranos’ ending and the famous restaurant scene from the first Godfather movie (1972). Many fans think that the final scene of The Sopranos mirrors the classic Godfather scene where Michael Corleone exits the bathroom and kills Sollozzo and McCluskey.

According to this theory, after he exits the bathroom, the guy with the Members Only jacket is about to kill Tony, just like Michael killed the people with whom he was having a meeting. David Chase has simply decided not to show the other half of the scene and left it to the viewer’s imagination to fill the blank.

2. Who killed Tony? (The Three Possible Answers)

If you’ve already subscribed to the theory that Tony is killed in the end, there are three possible answers as to who did it.

a) The vast majority of fans agree that Butchie is the one responsible.

Butch DeConcini is Phil Leotardo’s right-hand man and the underboss of the Lupertazzi crime family.

When Phil gives the order to “decapitate” Jersey’s “glorified crew,” the plan is to take out its three major figures: Tony, Bobby, and Silvio. Bobby is killed in the locomotive shop, Silvio takes a bullet to the head and is put on life support, and the only one who remains is Tony.

This theory states that Butchie never really wanted to make peace with Tony, but only did it so he can take Phil out of the picture and become the boss himself. He then proceeds with the original plan and he sends the Members Only guy to kill Tony at the diner.

The main flaw with this theory is that, in the end, Butchie is obviously unwilling to continue with the conflict and this is the main reason why he turns against Phil in the first place.

While hiding in Little Italy, Phil calls Butchie and tells him how disappointed he is because Butchie has failed to locate and kill Tony. Butchie feels that things have gotten way out of hand and even tries to suggest making peace with Tony so they can end the war, but Phill makes it clear that that’s not going to happen and hangs up the phone. The scene ends with Butchie being visibly uncomfortable and with a worrying look on his face—clearly showing he has had enough.

It is no secret that Butchie never liked Tony, but he doesn’t like freezing to death in Little Italy either. Not willing to go on with the “hide and seek” indefinitely, especially for a conflict that is essentially a personal issue between Phil and Tony, he makes a deal with the enemy and turns against his boss so that the Lupertazzis can start working and concentrate on making money again.

Also, it would make no sense for Butchie to betray Phil because he has had enough war, only to restart the conflict once Phil is gone. Besides, with Silvio in a coma, Paulie Walnuts would have become the new boss of the New Jersey crew. And Butchie knows that Paulie is not the most diplomatic or peace-loving guy in the mafia (and that’s putting it mildly).

Now, let’s look at two much less popular theories:

b) Paulie and Patsy killed Tony

Why would Tony’s own men take him out, you ask? Well, Pat Parisi never forgave Tony for killing his twin brother, and after the boat ride, Paulie is afraid that Tony knows (or at least strongly suspects) that it was him who told Johny Sack about the joke that Ralph made about his wife. Also, in the last scene with Paulie, we see the orange cat looking at him. Some fans believe that there is a symbolic meaning here: the cat points out the rat.

This theory is very unlikely to be true because if Paulie and Patsy were conspiring to kill Tony, there would be no reason for them to wait for so long. Besides, they had a golden opportunity to stab Tony in the back during the war with the Lupertazzis and get on good terms with them. It makes no sense for them to stay loyal to Tony during the conflict, only so they can stab him in the back after it’s all over.

c) The Russians killed Tony

The least popular theory is that the Russian mafia killed Tony as an act of revenge for Valery. Why did the Russians wait for years to act? Well, one could make the argument that they didn’t want to go to war with Tony while the New Jersy crew was at the height of its power, but now that they are significantly weakened, they decided to finally act and avenge their fallen soldier.

However, this is extremely unlikely, because as far as we know, the Russians never found out what happened to Valery (and neither did we for that matter).

Now, let’s look at some interesting theories that fans have come up with about the ending.

3. Three Interesting Fan Theories

One of the most famous theories is that Meadow is Tony’s guardian angel and that this time she didn’t arrive in time to save her father. It was Meadow’s voice that saved Tony when he was in a coma after being shot by Uncle Junior, and if she had arrived at the diner just a moment earlier, she would have blocked the bullet somehow.

This is ridiculous because if the guy in the Members Only jacket was there to kill Tony, there is no reason to think that he would somehow be dissuaded by Meadow’s presence; he would have simply taken a slightly different angle and finished the job anyway.

Another interesting theory is that Rhiannon Flammer, the girl who A.J. meets at the psychiatric care facility, was actually working for the Lupertazzis and that it was she who provided the information that Tony would be with his family at the diner.

This theory has a couple of flaws. First of all, Phil’s plan was to take out Tony and his crew before they find out what’s going on (and when it comes to Bobby and Silvio, he was successful). Phil never planned for Tony to go into hiding in the first place; he was supposed to be killed long before that.

Secondly, A.J. continues to see Rhiannon after the family goes into hiding. So, if Rhiannon really did work for the Lupertazzis, that means that the Lupertazzis knew the location of Carmela and A.J. all along. Tony visits his family multiple times during the war, and if Rhiannon worked for Phil and Butchie, then Tony would have been dead the first time he tried to visit Carmela and the kids.

Finally, there is a theory that the Members Only guy is not there to kill Tony, but us—the audience. After all, it’s us who don’t hear anything at the end, right? It’s our point of view that goes black. This is a very interesting theory, but unfortunately, there is no way to prove it or disprove it. Nonetheless, it would have been genius if this was Chase’s intention with the final scene.

4. The True Meaning of the Ending

Many fans have noticed a similarity between the ending of The Sopranos and the ending of Stanley Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey. Like Dr. David Bowman, Tony sees a future version of himself after he enters the diner, and just like The Sopranos, 2001 has an ambiguous ending, with director Stanley Kubrick refusing to give a definitive answer.

But, to truly understand what David Chase was trying to do with the final scene, it would be even better to compare The Sopranos’ ending with the endings of Total Recall (1990) and Inception (2010). Both of these movies have deliberately ambiguous endings, and it is the feeling of uncertainty that gives the final scenes such a powerful emotional punch. This is very similar to what David Chase was trying to achieve with The Sopranos’ ending.

Earlier in the series (season 4), Adriana La Cerva is pressured by the FBI into cooperating. After this, Adriana gets paranoid and imagines that everybody in Tony’s crew already knows that she is an informant.

There is one scene, in particular, where Tony is talking on his cell phone and Adriana imagines that Tony is saying “I’m going to kill her.” In reality, this is not happening, of course, but in this way Chase makes us feel Adriana’s paranoia. Chase does the same with the final scene: he shows us how it feels to be Tony Soprano.

So, now, we can finally understand the meaning of the ending: Tony has won, and for the time being, he has no enemies. But, what is the price that he has to pay for his victory? What are the life consequences of being a high-profile gangster?

Every time the bell in the diner rings, it could be his killer entering the establishment. Tony has acquired a lot of power and money, but he has paid a terrible price: he can’t even go out to dinner with his family without constantly worrying that someone might kill him.

Whether the guy in the Members Only jacket is or isn’t Tony’s assassin is irrelevant. David Chase has repeatedly stated that the final scene was not written with a definitive answer in mind. The point is that whether Tony dies that night or gets to live for another 40 years, he will always have to look over his shoulder and be afraid of his own shadow until the day he dies.

5. Yeah… But, I Have To know! Did Tony Die in the End?

Even though it was just explained that the ending is intentionally ambiguous and that even David Chase does not have an answer about Tony’s fate, many fans still want to know: Was Tony killed in the end? Well, at the beginning of this article I promised that you were going to get a definitive answer to all your questions, and now I’m going to deliver:

We can conclude, with almost 100% certainty, that Tony lives in the end! How can I be so sure, you ask? Keep reading:

First of all, the guy in the Members Only jacket wastes too much time. If he was there to kill Tony, he would have finished the job ten times over by the time the screen cuts to black.

The guy enters the diner, and although Tony is right there in front of him, he sits at a table and waits. Tony has a conversation with A.J. about his new job, and although minutes have passed, the Members Only guy still does nothing. This is not how a killer would act.

If someone is about to commit a murder at a diner or some other public place, it’s not in his best interest to spend too much time there. Otherwise, he is giving the eyewitnesses a chance to get a better look at him, memorize his face, and give a better description to the police.

But what about the fact that Eugene Pontecorvo was wearing an identical jacket when he killed that guy at the diner? Isn’t this a clear hint that Tony also gets killed?

Unless you think that everyone who wears a Members Only jacket is about to kill someone—not necessarily. Too many people are concentrating on the jackets, but what they should be concentrating on is Eugene’s behavior, and then compare it to the behavior of the guy in the final scene.

When Eugene enters the diner and sees his target, he approaches him, kills him, and then leaves the diner before anyone can say “gabagool.” The entire scene lasts for only 24 seconds (seriously, I counted). Eugene doesn’t waste time by pretending that he is ordering food, and he doesn’t go to the bathroom for no reason.

Also, because he is about to kill someone, Eugene wears gloves when he enters the diner; the guy in the final scene touches everything with his bare hands.

The Members Only guy takes a seat, and we see him tapping his fingers on the table (leaving his fingerprints on it), and In the next shot, we see him having a coffee, which means that he is leaving even more DNA at the scene.

Also, by ordering the coffee, he gives the waiter two chances to take a good look at his face. And after three or four minutes (plenty of time to kill Tony) the guy goes to the bathroom.

It’s very unlikely that this guy is Tony’s killer.

But, isn’t the final scene reminiscent of the classic Godfather scene when Michael exits the bathroom and kills Sollozzo? This is also Tony’s favorite scene of all time. Surely, this isn’t just a coincidence?

It would be wrong to compare the Godfather scene with The Sopranos’ ending because Michael Corleone and the Members Only guy are not in a similar situation. In the Godfather scene, Michael doesn’t carry a weapon with him because he knows he will get frisked before the Sollozzo meeting. Then, once inside the restaurant, Michael has to go to the bathroom to get his gun.

There is no reason for the Members Only guy to think that someone is going to frisk him on his way to the diner. If he really is Tony’s killer, he would have already been carrying a gun with him, and there would be no reason for him to go to the bathroom.

But, didn’t David Chase call the ending “a death scene” in a 2019 interview?

Here’s what happened: Chase was interviewed by authors Alan Sepinwall and Matt Zoller Seitz for their upcoming book “The Sopranos Sessions.” During the interview, Chase said the phrase “that death scene,” and the authors thought that he was referring to the actual ending. When the authors asked him if he was aware of what he was saying, Chase told them “F@ck you guys” and they all burst out laughing.

Chase later clarified that he was referring to one of his earlier ideas for the final scene, and in that version, Tony is indeed killed. Chase abandoned this idea because, as he said in an earlier interview, he didn’t want to give the audience the satisfaction of seeing Tony dead. Here is what he said:

“The way I see it is that Tony Soprano had been people’s alter ego. They had gleefully watched him rob, kill, pillage, lie, and cheat. They had cheered him on. And then, all of a sudden, they wanted to see him punished for all that. They wanted “justice.” They wanted to see his brains splattered on the wall. I thought that was disgusting, The pathetic thing—to me—was how much they wanted his blood, after cheering him on for eight years.”

So, the interview with Alan and Matt is not the smoking gun that those who want to confirm Tony’s death think it is. If anything, the very fact that Chase had abandoned an earlier idea that actually gives us Tony’s death, implies that Tony doesn’t die in the end. Otherwise, what would be the point of abandoning the idea in the first place?

But, why would Chase build all this tension at the end, if it all goes nowhere?

The tension is the whole point of the final scene! Chase is showing us what Tony has to live with for the rest of his life. By showing Tony’s paranoia he sends a clear message about the cost of choosing to live a life as a gangster. The only thing that Chase is going for in the final scene is uncertainty, and tension is a significant part of the equation.

To quote David Chase:

“There was nothing definite about what happened, but there was a clean trend on view—a definite sense of what Tony and Carmela’s future looks like. Whether it happened that night or some other night doesn’t matter.”

So, there you have it! I hope that finally, you have all the answers about The Sopranos’ ending. So, go ahead and get yourself some onion rings, play some Journey, and of course, don’t stop believing!